What is my survival rate 4 and half years later - 1271404

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chellchris
What is my survival rate 4 and half years later - 1271404

Hi, I am not sure if I am in the right place, I did search and cannot seem to find the right answer. Anyhow, here goes, I had LC 3A 4 and half years ago. Thankfully no recurrence and fit and healthy. I am in the process of immigrating and the Immigration people state - When the probability of disease-free survival at five years following successful completion of treatment is assessed to be 70% or greater, using information from the Medical officer Handbook or authoritative sources, cases may be categorized as M3.....All patients in remission, whose probability of five year survival is judged to be less than 70%, will be assessed M5 with review generally at five years from the date of the diagnosis. M3 is a medical pass. Does anyone know what or how I can work out my percentage? As if I hadn't already had one big fight on my hands I now seem to have another somehow proving to Immigration that I am at a certain percentage. I am sorry for asking but need to be armed with as much info as I can. Thanks in advance everyone

JimC
Hi chellchris,

Hi chellchris,

Welcome to GRACE, and congratulations on your terrific treatment results! Your chance of recurrence after four and a half years is very small. There isn't a great deal of statistical data available, but Dr. West did address the subject and provide some information here.In describing the research results, Dr. West stated:

"They found that, if recurrences were going to ever happen, about 50% occurred within the first year, at least two-thirds within two years, and about 80% or more within three years."

There is a chart which expresses the rate of recurrence over time, which may be helpful to you.

Good luck.

JimC
Forum moderator

<p>I began visiting GRACE in July, 2008 when my wife Liz was diagnosed with lung cancer, and became a forum moderator in January, 2010. My beloved wife of 30 years passed away Nov. 4, 2011 after battling stage IV lung cancer for 3 years and 4 months</p>

catdander
Hi chellchris,

Hi chellchris,

Congrats on the almost positive cure rate. At 5 years it looks like it's close to 90-95%. Keep in mind that the term remission in lung cancer isn't even used because it's normal for it to come back quickly (as seen in the graph). I don't know if that would be a talking point in your immigration or not.

I hope all goes well and let us know if you need anything else.

Janine

chellchris
Hi Jim and Janine, thank you

Hi Jim and Janine, thank you so much for your responses, this means so much to me to have input. I am in such a worry, On the Canadian cancer society it states that NSCLC stage 3A has a 17percent rate over five years? I was therefore under the impression that that is the rate they will assess me at? therefore I would be inadmissible to Canada and have to leave. Do you mean comes back quickly in the first couple of years? I guess you did mean that. So if Immigration look at Canadian Stats which they are likely to do won't they assume from that my 5 year percentage is 17 percent? I am so confused and sorry for rambling on but thanks in advance.

JimC
Hi chellchris,

Hi chellchris,

Although I can't tell you how they will look at the statistics, they shouldn't really judge you based on percentages applicable to newly-diagnosed patients. Many of the patients who do not fare as well actually have metastatic disease, which simply has not appeared on their scans at diagnosis, so those patients have much higher rates of recurrence and shorter median survival times. Once a patient has passed the two or three year milestone without "recurrence", that tends to mean that initial treatment has been successful at getting all of the cancer, and your chance of recurrence and 5-year survival rate are much better.

Perhaps submitting Dr. West's post, along with a letter from your oncologist, will help.

Good luck

JimC
Forum moderator

<p>I began visiting GRACE in July, 2008 when my wife Liz was diagnosed with lung cancer, and became a forum moderator in January, 2010. My beloved wife of 30 years passed away Nov. 4, 2011 after battling stage IV lung cancer for 3 years and 4 months</p>

chellchris
Thank you Jim I have

Thank you Jim I have submitted letter from Onc and Surgeon opinion so hopefully that will do the job, if they need more info I will submit Dr West letter, Let's hope it is not needed, thank you for your support everyone,